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Thursday 13 August 2020

Stochastics and Soul

It might be that free will and soul and spirit can be detected scientifically as being beyond the laws of physics. If you sum many different possibly physics-consistent stochastic equations with many ranges of Eigen vectors and Eigen values and reality matches a field of all possible values it might be feasible that reality is devoid of wills. If reality does not fit such possible results then will might actually exist, and therefore soul. Possibly spirit too. I think we discern spirit because inwardly our brains do all that maths to work out the physical nature of our environment and when something is outside the normal range we discern it is spiritual. Such as with dreams. We can guess all the normal kinds of dreams we might dream, by extrapolation and interpolation and intelligently summing possibilities, then we recognise a more cognisant externally inspired dream, perhaps by clarity of a prediction within it and this prediction coming true, for which stochastic models could not possibly allow. Stochastics by nature only takes the recent state and predicts the imminent. Nothing beyond the imminent is predicable by known maths. If it were the insurance industry would be far richer, as would bookkeepers. Spirit can predict it.

Einstein used Brownian motion as use case for his calculus and that calculus is normally used for things like predicting share prices, insurance premiums, etc. Black Scholes is the usual further development of the calculus used for these. Stochastic modelling. So human behaviour is no different. It has a random element and a vector (direction and speed) based on most recent data and a variation component. My memory is a bit rusty so I might have the details wrong. But it is usual to extend such calculus and partial differentials to cater for biological processes such as behaviour, population modelling, force field analysis, etc. No problem using it for looking at predictable behaviour of all kinds except when the system is very volatile. Then you compare predicted behaviour with actual behaviour. The harder part is modelling based on physical laws. That is alright to land a probe on Jupiter but not so good with modelling a disease or pandemic or betting on a race. But not impossible. So why isn’t it being done, with high profile? Perhaps fear of discovering God, soul, free will.

So take a set of laws affecting humans, such as tendency to stay stood upright and the mechanics involved in that. Add a random factor plus preconditions at time immediately before monitoring. Write an calculus equation (partial differentials) to predict very next movement based on these factors. Observe actual next movement in many cases. Adjust the equation to see that randomness is correct and orders of magnitude of forces affecting outcome are correct. Then wait and monitor occasions when actual movement exceeds expected. This is the kind of thing along with machine learning, neural networks, they probably use to monitor people in smart systems, so the maths must exist. Investigate anomalies to see whether physical laws plus randomness alone explain observed movements. If not, look into it further. Was there free will involved? Spiritual effects? Evidence of soul?

If you look at micro level. Macro effects like social ones have too many unknowns. Start with what is supposedly fully understood. Movement is a good fit with the maths. Lots of the factors of movement are known well such as energy availability in form of muscle phosphorus content which can be monitored using a scanner (CAT, NMR). Movement is physically limited to phosphorus I think. ATP, etc. Impulses into muscles can only come in finite ways. These could be monitored and modelled. Physics and chemistry account well for movement and topological freedoms of movement. Movement is well analysed philosophically and metaphysically too. So it should be predictable at microscopic level and it should be subject to only finite physical laws and the randomness should be knowable too. I know that the God series presented by Morgan Freeman mentioned similar studies in brain activity of meditation as example of scientific study of theology.